Calculations of CO2 Emissions Rate and Total Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide | ||||||
This spreadsheet calculates the annual change in total
atmospheric CO2 based on an 80% by 2050 target (1.87%/year) - note that the
0.5% figure for annual natural removal rates is very approximate. Plug in any target number under
"Reduction Rate" to see how atmospheric CO2 concentrations change
in any given year. Keep in mind that this is a very simplistic
rendition of an extremely complex system, and annual human emissions rates
represent only one factor driving current global warming. It has been
the most important until recently, but with the activation of positive
feedback loops our emissions may take second place to the forces of nature,
which unlike emissions, are out of our control.
You can download the spreadsheet HERE and try out your own emissions scenarios. Spreadsheet contains no macros. |
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GtC/yr (gigatons of carbon) |
GtCO2/yr (gigatons of carbon dioxide) |
|||||
Annual CO2 emissions, 2004 | ||||||
Fossil fuels and industrial combustion (increasing) | 7.9 | 28.9456 | ||||
Land use change, mainly clearing (steady) | 1.5 | 5.496 | ||||
from "Global and Regional Drivers of CO2 Emissions", p1 | ||||||
Equivalents: | ||||||
1 ppm = 2.125 GtC | ||||||
1 ppm = 7.786 GtCO2 | ||||||
Total atmospheric CO2 | ||||||
280 ppm x 7.786 GtCO2 = 2,180.08 GtCO2 pre-ind | ||||||
380 ppm x 7.786 GtCO2 = 2,958.68 GtCO2 in 2006 | ||||||
Reducing emissions | Year | Reduction Rate | Net Change GtCO2 | Less .5%/yr removed | Total Atmospheric GtCO2 | Total Atmospheric ppm CO2 |
Note: .0187 (1.87%) is the annual equivalent of 80% by 2050 | 2006 | 34.00 | 2,958.68 | 380 | ||
2007 | 0.0187 | 33.36 | 14.79 | 2,977.25 | 382 | |
2008 | 0.0187 | 32.74 | 14.89 | 2,995.10 | 385 | |
2009 | 0.0187 | 32.13 | 14.98 | 3,012.26 | 387 | |
2010 | 0.0187 | 31.53 | 15.06 | 3,028.72 | 389 | |
2011 | 0.0187 | 30.94 | 15.14 | 3,044.52 | 391 | |
2012 | 0.0187 | 30.36 | 15.22 | 3,059.65 | 393 | |
2013 | 0.0187 | 29.79 | 15.30 | 3,074.15 | 395 | |
2014 | 0.0187 | 29.23 | 15.37 | 3,088.01 | 397 | |
2015 | 0.0187 | 28.69 | 15.44 | 3,101.26 | 398 | |
2016 | 0.0187 | 28.15 | 15.51 | 3,113.90 | 400 | |
2017 | 0.0187 | 27.62 | 15.57 | 3,125.96 | 401 | |
2018 | 0.0187 | 27.11 | 15.63 | 3,137.44 | 403 | |
2019 | 0.0187 | 26.60 | 15.69 | 3,148.35 | 404 | |
2020 | 0.0187 | 26.10 | 15.74 | 3,158.71 | 406 | |
2021 | 0.0187 | 25.62 | 15.79 | 3,168.54 | 407 | |
2022 | 0.0187 | 25.14 | 15.84 | 3,177.83 | 408 | |
2023 | 0.0187 | 24.67 | 15.89 | 3,186.61 | 409 | |
2024 | 0.0187 | 24.21 | 15.93 | 3,194.88 | 410 | |
2025 | 0.0187 | 23.75 | 15.97 | 3,202.66 | 411 | |
2026 | 0.0187 | 23.31 | 16.01 | 3,209.95 | 412 | |
2027 | 0.0187 | 22.87 | 16.05 | 3,216.78 | 413 | |
2028 | 0.0187 | 22.44 | 16.08 | 3,223.14 | 414 | |
2029 | 0.0187 | 22.03 | 16.12 | 3,229.05 | 415 | |
2030 | 0.0187 | 21.61 | 16.15 | 3,234.51 | 415 | |
2031 | 0.0187 | 21.21 | 16.17 | 3,239.55 | 416 | |
2032 | 0.0187 | 20.81 | 16.20 | 3,244.17 | 417 | |
2033 | 0.0187 | 20.42 | 16.22 | 3,248.37 | 417 | |
2034 | 0.0187 | 20.04 | 16.24 | 3,252.17 | 418 | |
2035 | 0.0187 | 19.67 | 16.26 | 3,255.57 | 418 | |
2036 | 0.0187 | 19.30 | 16.28 | 3,258.59 | 419 | |
2037 | 0.0187 | 18.94 | 16.29 | 3,261.24 | 419 | |
2038 | 0.0187 | 18.58 | 16.31 | 3,263.52 | 419 | |
2039 | 0.0187 | 18.24 | 16.32 | 3,265.44 | 419 | |
2040 | 0.0187 | 17.90 | 16.33 | 3,267.00 | 420 | |
2041 | 0.0187 | 17.56 | 16.34 | 3,268.23 | 420 | |
2042 | 0.0187 | 17.23 | 16.34 | 3,269.12 | 420 | |
2043 | 0.0187 | 16.91 | 16.35 | 3,269.69 | 420 | |
2044 | 0.0187 | 16.59 | 16.35 | 3,269.93 | 420 | |
2045 | 0.0187 | 16.28 | 16.35 | 3,269.86 | 420 | |
2046 | 0.0187 | 15.98 | 16.35 | 3,269.49 | 420 | |
2047 | 0.0187 | 15.68 | 16.35 | 3,268.83 | 420 | |
2048 | 0.0187 | 15.39 | 16.34 | 3,267.87 | 420 | |
2049 | 0.0187 | 15.10 | 16.34 | 3,266.63 | 420 | |
2050 | 0.0187 | 14.82 | 16.33 | 3,265.11 | 419 |